This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight card at Russia. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win a lot of money from this week contemplating it is a more compact card and starts at 10:15am ET. The main GPP is a $15 buy and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $100k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they will compete for a $50k first place price and $175k will probably be spread out between all 100 admissions that match. I will attempt to receive my 2nd and 3rd chairs this week if possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers so be cautious chasing those too hard. I’ll likely stick to the top GPP this week and throw 100 or so entries at that $25k prize, then I will probably have a couple shots in the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs through the week to receive a great quantity of play into cash games.
With that said, let us get into a couple plays I enjoy this week along with my fade of the week:
Money Game play of the week — Roxanne Modafferi — $6,900
I really don’t believe there are really no cash locks nowadays, so I needed to bring up a cash strategy I use a lot of the time, which is punting in money and accepting a loss. I don’t think Roxy gets the win , but she is only $6.9k and that I believe she gets 15-minutes of action. I like the flooring that accompanies this and punting along with her cheap price allows us to fit in a lot of those favorites that are higher with our other 5 spots. We do not need 6 wins in money games, so I do not believe we will need to even try for it. I enjoy playing cash games safer and if I can lock in 25-35 points at a reduction from Roxy in her cheap price I am totally ok with that. I always look for 4 wins in money and over 350-400 DK points. That is my goal weekly. Let everyone else make the mistakes and just shoot for a score that may conquer 50 percent or more of the area.
GPP play of this week — Alistair Overeem — $8,900
This really is an all-in struggle for GPPs in my view and I like Overeem as one of my top plays of the week. Oleinik took this fight on short notice so I would be amazed to see this go all 5 rounds. In addition, I think Overeem will be too fast for him to get takedowns, and Overeem is levels ahead of him at the striking game. The only shooter Oleinik has of winning on the feet is by landing a haymaker and knocking Overeem out. Or, get a standing submission. Other than those two results, Overeem will smoke on the feet. In addition, I believe Overeem can work his way back into his feet if he is removed and the longer Oleinik shoots takedowns the faster he will gas out. I like the -175 ITD lineup which is included with Overeem here and I think he gets a finish in around 1 or 2. That should provide us near 100 DK points if not more, and I need that in a lot of my own GPP lineups.
Underdog drama of this week — Rafael Fiziev — $7,700
Fiziev is no more the underdog on the betting line (-120) but DraftKings salaries do not change once they are released. We receive Fiziev here for $800 less costly than Mustafaev and he’s favored to get the win. I was very impressed by what I saw out of this child and I agree with the line motion. I really do think he has the win , but it is the DK worth that we want to make certain to get exposure to the weekend. I believe he’s a great play in cash games with the present price and I expect to be overweight on him in GPPs as well. We must roster underdogs in our lineups and when we can use a favorite as one of those”underdogs” I am usually on board for it.
Fade of the week — Antonina Shevchenko ($9,300)
Antonina Shevchenko is my fade of the week for her $9.3k price label. I do think she gets the win here since I said earlier, I just don’t see the way she can pay off that wages without a finish. I don’t see her shooting for any takedowns in this game, and I don’t want to rely on her getting knockdown points . So, we are only going to be receiving 0.5 points each significant attack, and the 30-point win bonus if she wins a choice. If this is true, we’d need her to property over 126 sig strikes just to get more than 10x value. I don’t see that being true and I believe she more likely scores 80-85 DK points at a decision triumph. At her wages, that will not win anyone the big $25k. That is the prize I am shooting for so that’s why she’s my fade of this week.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle on the card and provide my full DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link as well. I am 69-41 to get +237.39u (+$23,739) because May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
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